A new working paper from researchers at Stanford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Chicago has documented a measurable shift in how participants in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program buy beverages. In the first half of 2026, states that restricted soda purchases with SNAP benefits recorded an estimated 12 percent decline in sugary drink sales among recipients. The drop translated to roughly 34 fewer 12-ounce cans per person annually, and the reduction occurred without evidence that shoppers simply replaced the banned items using their own cash. The findings challenge a long-standing assumption in food policy circles that restrictions would merely redirect spending rather than reduce overall consumption.
Policy Changes Reach More Households
At least 23 states have secured federal waivers allowing them to bar sugary drinks from SNAP transactions. The study examined the initial 10 states to put such rules into effect. These measures target beverages that contribute to higher rates of diabetes and other chronic conditions, areas where public health officials have long sought leverage through nutrition assistance programs. SNAP accounts for about 12 percent of total grocery spending nationwide, giving the restrictions broad reach. Recipients also tend to spend more on groceries each month than non-participants, which amplifies the potential impact on both household budgets and retailer sales.
Substitution Theory Does Not Hold
A common concern among industry observers has been that families would simply purchase the same volume of soda with personal funds once SNAP dollars were restricted. The new analysis found no support for that pattern in states that limited only soda. In contrast, states that left fruit juices and energy drinks unrestricted saw some diversion, with up to 39 percent of consumption shifting toward those alternatives. The absence of full substitution in the stricter states suggests that the policy altered actual buying behavior rather than merely changing the payment method.
Broader Health and Economic Stakes
Policymakers have considered SNAP limits alongside sugar taxes as tools to improve dietary outcomes. The researchers estimated that extending soda restrictions nationwide could generate roughly $1.1 billion in annual benefits, with about 70 percent tied to lower healthcare costs from reduced chronic disease. Fifteen states have also moved to restrict candy purchases, adding another layer of change for manufacturers and retailers. Early reports from companies such as Hershey indicate modest effects in the first states to implement waivers, though overall sales have remained within prior expectations.
Legal and Implementation Questions Ahead
Court challenges have already altered the landscape. A recent ruling overturned restrictions in five states following lawsuits by SNAP recipients, leaving the long-term status of the waivers uncertain. Future litigation could further shape how widely these rules apply. For families, the changes mean different choices at the checkout aisle and potentially different habits over time. Retailers and beverage makers continue to monitor shelf movement and adjust strategies as more states consider similar steps. The study provides one of the first large-scale looks at whether the restrictions deliver the intended reduction in consumption.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.